Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
